Eurozone: In 17 months low the economic climate in August

Significantly less optimistic were consumers and businesses Eurozone in August, as fears of debt crisis and kept the outlook of growth remains weak. According to the monthly survey of the European Commission economic sentiment indicator fell to 98.3 points from the 103 units in July. This figure is the lowest since March last year and was below economists’ expectations for 100.5 points, according to a poll of Dow Jones Newswires. This applied pressures on the Euro in the forex market as the common european currency was declined over 0.50% against all other major currencies. The sixth consecutive drop in the index reinforces the contraction of the eurozone economy and shows that the European Central Bank will probably be reluctant to raise its key interest rate for the third time this year even though inflation remains above target.

In parallel, the industrial confidence indicator declined to -2.9 points in August from 0.9 points in July, the lower size than in July last year, economists expect -2 points. Confidence in the services sector fell to 3.7 from 7.9 points, its lowest level since June last year. The business climate index fell to 0.07 from 0.44 points in July, its lowest level since March last year. Economists expected the index to create on 0.18 points. In addition, consumer confidence declined strongly, though less than anticipated. Specifically, the index declined to -16.5 from -11.2 points, recording the lowest size by June 2010 but higher than the preliminary data for 16.6 points. Confidence in the retail sector fell to -8.7 points in August from 3.6 points last month.

Finally, note that the only improvement in confidence occurred in construction, where the index was less negative at -23.3 points from -24.3 points in July.

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Beers of the S & P: Greece will go bankrupt by the end of the year

Greece will go bankrupt by the end of the year, as argued by David Beers , head of international public evaluations of the Standard & Poor’s . According to a report in Dow Jones Newswires , the Beers reiterated its estimate of the S & P that Greece can be found a state of bankruptcy later this year after the agreement on debt relief and extension of the maturities of the bonds. recalled that last month the S & P said that Greece would lead to selective default , when enabled the design of Europeans, according to which individuals will participate in the second bailout of the country. This plan “includes a bankruptcy and debt relief,” said Beers . In addition, Beers defended the recent decision by the S & P to downgrade the ratings of U.S. and described the assertion of U.S. Treasury that was wrong 2 trillion. U.S. dollars false. “There is no mathematical error” as claimed by the ministry, stating that the said amount was anyway not affect the decision to regrade as referring to longer-term calculations. The forex traders however continue to see the EURUSD pair over $1.4200 and so far there are no signs of weakness. Finally, in China noted that, like other countries, challenges faced by the aging of inflation. Risks remain controllable, but how to deal with this issue will impact on future assessments of the country.

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Concern about the performances of the bonds of Cyprus

The data that exist in international markets concern the economic team of the Cypriot government, according to a report of StockWatch, as yields of Cypriot bonds in recent weeks have increased significantly. Yields on five-year bonds reached Cyprus yesterday to 16.2% and ten to 10.69%, according to the same publication, and from 21 July when the new package announced support for Greece, the yield of ten-Cypriot bond shows an increase of 206 units. The government of Cyprus supports that the financing needs of the state are covered by mid-December and, with minor exceptions, this year borrows from the domestic market, which is expected to continue in the coming months. The crucial test for the new Minister of Finance of Cyprus will be the autumn, when he will have to persuade lenders to refinance loans worth of 1.1 billion euros maturing in early 2012, notes the same publication. Indeed, the head office management debt Cyprus Faidonas good life, says the StockWatch that “measures is a prerequisite for making progress on new lending. We expect to complete consultations and will sit with the new minister to redesign our Loan program. “

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Bloomberg: At 85 billion Euros the new aid to Greece

At 85 billion is expected to reach new aid to Greece, including the participation of private creditors in a rescue operation that aims to avoid bankruptcy and to end the debt crisis in the eurozone, according to what is broadcast to Bloomberg, citing official the Austrian Ministry of Finance. The whole package for Greece will be this way at 190-195 billion, including 110 billion of the initial package, said Thomas Wieser, head of the ministry for economic policy and financial markets , in the media in Vienna. The participation of investors seems that was welcomed in the forex market as this will make the European countries to pay less. The International Monetary Fund will allocate 30% of new funds, while the eurozone countries and private creditors will contribute the remaining 70% said Wieser. While German and French officials have put the goal of participation private creditors at 30 billion euros, “it is not easy to assess the involvement of the private sector,” noted Minister of Finance of Austria Maria Fekter.

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Chaos in the CDS market from the fear of “non-bankruptcy” of Greece

The desperate efforts of the ECB and EUto avoid a bankruptcy Greek confusing derivatives markets debt insurance (CDS), and may lead to a significant overhaul of how these markets operate in the future, according to today’s publication of Dow Jones Newswires. Controversial issue is the clear definition of the term “credit event (credit event)”, as it could lead to failure to pay the insured amount to the holders of CDS even if Greece is bankrupt, according to statements by participants in the market.

This could lead to legal disputes between those buying and those selling Greek CDS, to pander to the CDS market and increase borrowing costs for countries in the European region, while the lending capacity is already under pressure, according to always the same publication. Commenting on the above issue, the chief fixed income of Evolution Securities, Gary Jenkins explained, “comes into question the practical use of CDS, because basically you pay to buy protection and when necessary, does not receive anything.” The panic on the CDS markets is reflected also on the forex market where EURO has experience much up and downs the last week. Many Forex Brokers stated that billions of dollars change hands as one one moment ECB and IMF together with EU say that Greece will not bankrupt while on the other they do not agree on the ways this can be done.

On the same theme that Jonathan Compton portfolio manager at Bedlam Asset Management said: “This situation can destroy confidence in the value of securities insurance against bankruptcy.And not just Greece.We know what will happen in Greece will affect the others. ” The International Exchange and Derivatives Association (ISDA), the only regulatory authority that sets the terms in contracts of CDS, has admitted to Financial News that the term “credit event” is very confusing.

The Executive Director of ISDA, David Geen said that “The definitions are precise and are in effect many years, but if members feel it prudent to revise and update, then I will do, although none so far has not asked anything so.But I do not think that one expects the term restructuring will include all possible cases. ” Noted that he has already asked the agency to clarify whether the “rescue” viewed as the most appropriate solution from Germany and includes the involvement of private bondholders, would trigger the CDS.

On this the Geen said that the Agency shall consider this issue because this case is not fully covered by existing definitions of bankruptcy issued by the ISDS. Many investors are concerned, according to the report of the DJ that the EUand policy makers will do everything possible to avoid the activation of CDS. The last word however, concludes the report, whether ultimately it should be enabled or not the CDS to potential restructuring of the Greek debt has the ISDA, which consists of 10 banks (including Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse), five companies, investors and consultants 2.

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Regling: The strategy to protect Eurozone is successful

The strategy adopted to stabilize the Eurozone is successful, while the union rescue package to help the weaker members of the eurozone to implement fiscal adjustment programs, said yesterday Klaus Regling, head of the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF ). “The strategy adopted to protect the euro is effective,” said Regling, who manages the temporary rescue mechanism tise Eurozone EFSF, in his speech in Frankfurt. That is why the EURUSD is trading for many months now above the 1.4200 – involve now to the online forex market and trade with leverage up to 1:500.

“Financial exit strategy of the eurozone is on track,” he said. The weaker euro zone countries have begun to implement programs of fiscal adjustment, although these must be “fully implemented”, he said. “Efforts at the national level is crucial,” he added. Mechanisms such as the rescue EFSF, will help countries to implement these programs, although “the possibility of fatigue of the reforms can not be excluded,” he said. Eurozone governments may agree later in June to extend the actual financial capacity of EFSF at 440 billion from 240 billion at present, said Regling. This will allow the mechanism to begin to lend additional funds by the end of the year, he added.
The EFSF will issue its second counterpart next week, according to Regling.

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Eurozone: 0.8% GDP growth in first quarter

The growth of the eurozone in the first quarter was fueled by the significant rise in business investment, according to official figures today saw the light of day. The second estimate of the official statistical agency Eurostat, the gross domestic product showed that the economy of the 17 States grew 0.8% in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter of 2010 and 2.5% on an annual basis. This is the fastest annual growth rate over three and a half years. The data were revised from the prior estimate and forecast came as the average estimates of analysts, according to a poll by Dow Jones Newswires.

The Eurostat said the companies increased their investments at a pace that has occurred since the period April-June 2010, assisted at a rate of 2.1% in the quarter, which constitute half of the 0.8% of the total growth of the economy. Investments decreased significantly in the second half of last year as fears about the reliability of the economically weaker Member States plunged the Eurozone. The evidence that growth is fueled by the resurgence of appetite for business spending, rather than exports and government spending, can exacerbate pressures, the European Central Bank to raise its key interest rate in coming months. The ECB will announce its latest decision on Thursday but there are few analysts expect a tightening of policy so soon. Open a forex trading account now and get advantage of the 20% first deposit forex bonus. Read the latest financial news that might act as important forex signals.

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The Chinese firm Dagong downgraded Greece to “CCC” from “BB”

In downgrading the rating of Greece to “CCC” from “BB” proceeded the Chinese rating agency Dagong, while gave also a “negative” outlook for the Greek economy over the next two years, according to news agency Xinhua. The firm notes that the downgrade reflects the deterioration of the country’s capacity to repay its debt and the inability to achieve positive growth rates in the near future, while warning and short-term risks of bankruptcy.

“Greece is facing a long and painful process of changing the structure of the economy,” said the firm considers it unlikely that the economy back into growth in the short term, noting that the decline in domestic consumption this year will decline 3.6%, making in 2011 the third consecutive year of economic contraction. Estimates of the house, the Greek economy will not return to growth until 2013. The Dagong further notes that it is increasingly difficult to achieve the objectives previously cut costs and featuring “more likely” to achieve financial targets this year.

The House is expected soon stabilize the ratio of the Greek debt to GDP ratio, which in 2010 stood at 142.8% and is expected to peak in 2015 at 163% to slightly decrease and then to 151.3% in 2020. This is another downgrade for Greece which will put further pressures on Euro in the Forex Market. Dagong doubts about whether it will be successful in “setting up” a new package of support for the Greek economy, but they will eventually be implemented successfully. He also expresses skepticism about the ability of Greece to implement structural reforms and implement the privatization program.

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EU: 5 year bond auction for Portugal

European Commission held a five-year bond auction worth of 4.75 billion Euros in order to strengthen the Portuguese funding package. The revenue will be distributed in Portugal on June 1 from the the European financial stabilization mechanism (EFSM). It was the second bond issue this week as on Tuesday held the 10-year bond auction worth of 4.75 billion Euros that will be used for Portugal and Ireland.

The 5-year bond had a coupon of 2.75% and billed at 0 bps over mid-swaps and ending on June 3, 2016. The issue was oversubscribed as the book offers were close to 10 billion Euros. Germany and Austria covered the 14%, Britain 17%, Scandinavia 12%, France 11%, Asia about 16%, the Middle East 7% and 5% by United States. The type of investors that interested in the auction were central banks and institutional (36%), banks 32% and fund managers 26%.

Please recall that the 10-year bond ends at June 4, 2021, and pays 3.5% coupon and billed at mid-swaps +14 basis points. Ireland will receive 3 billion and Portugal 1.75 billion Euros from the European Financial Stabilization Mechanism (ESFM). The disbursements will be held on May 31. Note that for the second half is scheduled two more bonds auctions. The successful bond auctions strengthened Euro on the Forex Market and as our Forex Broker stated, investors show faith to Europe and to its support mechanisms.

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Guilty for all 14 charges for the founder of Galleon, Rajaratnam

Guilty for all the 14 charges against the founder of hedge fund Galleon Raj Rajaratnam held court in Manhattan.

As broadcast foreign news agencies, nine categories related to securities fraud and five conspiracy to commit fraud.

Now the Rajaratnam, whose conviction was based on testimony and his associates in secretly recorded conversations , faces a prison sentence to 25 years. Rajaratnam The local residents will remain under restriction until July 29 when it announced the sentence of imprisonment.

According to the indictment Rajaratnam used inside information before the announcements of important events such as corporate earnings, mergers, split-offs and provisions, from companies like Intel, the Goldman Sachs, the Google, the ATI Technologies and Hilton Hotels profit of over 60 million dollars

Recalled that the Rajaratnam was arrested in October 2009 along with five other executives of hedge fund.

The Galleon was one of the 10 largest hedge fund world over the past decade and at its peak in 2008, funds managed $ 7 billion

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